$5-$10 NLHE (the return)

About three weeks ago I decided to move back to $5-$10 NLHE, despite being short on bankroll. I had been a big winner there for a significant period of time and it is a game I should feel comfortable in. I’ve decided to re-focus on this game.

This was my bread-and-butter for the whole of August, September, October and November last year. I had a bad run in December and lost my nerve a bit, deciding to withdraw a huge chunk of bankroll before moving down and trying other games (mostly PLO). The last few months chopping and changing have been largely unsuccessful and I decided to go back to what worked well for months.

This move has not been without its ups and downs, and so far since my return I have been a small loser. I didn’t help myself in this regard by playing an appalling session on the second day of my move. I realised since then that, maybe because of my Omaha experiences, I was going too far with too many hands. The bad session resulted in a $1400 loss in just under an hour. After this I gave myself a good talking to: I wasn’t entitled to win just because I had won there before. I acknowledged that I would have to play my best game to be a big winner again at this level. Then, a week or so ago, after three good days I had a huge ($3000) losing day. This was very frustrating, although in truth it was largely down to being on the wrong end of 2-3 big coolers.

Last week I broke even ($43 profit, actually) but this was disappointing because I played pretty well for the most part.

Here are some of the questionable plays I made, which cost me my profit for the week:

(1) Raised pre-flop with 77 and check-called a Q92 flop with two spades. I suspected from the odd bet-size that the tight aggressive caller on the button was actually quite weak in this hand. I checked again and decided to raise big (but with little behind as I started the hand with only $650). Unfortunately he had picked up a flush draw to go with his flopped middle pair and so my line had actually priced him in for the call. I bet my remaining $90 on the river, when surely a check would have been better – he cant fold anything because of the size of the pot and he probably wouldn’t bet a weak hand like the one he had.
(2) Playing heads-up (trying to get a new table going as there were huge lists on the other 10-seaters) I limped in the small blind with QQ. I had limped a few times before and often when I did the villain made it $45 or $50 causing me to fold. I decided that I needed to stop him doing this, so I limp-reraised to $150 with 79, causing him to fold. The next time I made that move was this hand with the QQ. He called my re-raise to $150 and the flop came 885 with two clubs. I bet $280 and after a while he flat-called. Alarm bells went off, but I felt compelled to push in my last $569 on the blank turn. He happily called with 98 offsuit.
(3) A loose-aggressive player who I’d tangled with a lot in the past raised in mid-position and there were three callers before it got to me in the big blind with pocket 10s. I decided to reraise to $150 and the opener reraised to $390, folding out all the flat-callers. I got a bit too frisky here and decided to re-raise all-in, thinking that he was putting me on a squeeze play. I was fairly sure that he had something that he wanted to get all-in with (either overcards or a bigger pair) but decided to gamble. He called me with pocket Jacks. I couldnt have played this much worse. First of all, why reraise and create a difficult situation like this? I could have simply paid $35 to try to flop a set (or an overpair, which might have been good). Secondly, why couldn’t I get away from the hand pre-flop after he puts in the third raise? This was clearly a bad spot to get all-in pre-flop and another example of bad play.

On the plus side, I feel I fitted back into the ebb and flow of the game much better last week. There are still one or two weak spots sitting in the games – even some of the ‘new’ regulars – and I am hoping to exploit these players in the coming weeks and months.

There are fewer loose players than there were a few months ago but I feel as though the tighter players can be exploited in certain spots. There’s a big difference between a 16/8 player and a 16/14. Maybe the 16/14 guy is the one who can be 4-bet off his hand when he 3-bets a late position raise. Also, the regulars seem to be very aggressive post-flop; surely to the point of possible exploitation.

Its tough to make money with small pairs as there are fewer multi-way pots than before. Also, there seems to be a lot more reraising from the blinds than previously. I think making the occasional flat-call with AA or KK will be a money-maker against some of the more aggressive post-flop TAGs, with the added advantage that it may attract a ‘squeezer’ in the blinds.

Overall, I think sticking to the same game for a while will help me get back to playing well again. That really is the key to success in this game: play well.

Back to the future (PLO)

I know I have done a fair bit of shifting about in this blog, with both stakes and game selection, but I have learned a lot about myself and my poker game in the last 9-10 months. I think writing about things has aided the learning process.

That said, I have decided that I should concentrate my efforts on Pot Limit Omaha for the forseeable future. There are a number of reasons for this:

- it is the game of the future (most super-high stakes games are now PLO);
- the fish:shark ratio is higher than at NLHE;
- I am prone to tilt less than I am at NLHE.

I have had very good results so far playing PLO and I am confident that the game suits my personality. I am happy to make decisions based on the odds, win or lose, and am confident that because of the confidence in my play re-inforced by my detailed analysis I am comfortable with the short-term swings.

I have put aside more money from the bankroll to cover expenses for the next few months, so there will be no immediate bankroll pressure. However, I have decided to go back to small stakes and play within bankroll limits and rules, building up to a point where I can maintain a playable bankroll at higher stakes.

The target for April is to play 2 tables of 6max PLO at 50c-$1 blinds, starting with a roll of $1600. (I did actually start with $800 playing 25c-50c but moved up pretty quickly).I hope to get to $3000 by the end of the month and will then move up to $1-$2. If I do happen to lose - these things happen from time to time - and I drop below $800 bankroll I will move down to 25c-50c and rebuild. To be honest I can't see this happening but its important to have a plan for losses.

The $1-$2 level is one that can support a win-rate of about $50 per hour and so its important to try to win consistently at stakes higher than this level, assuming I can win at a higher rate at the higher level. That way, if things do go bad then at least I will be dropping down to a level that can support a decent win-rate.

If I can manage to win at a decent rate at $3-$6 or higher, which isn't that unlikely, then we are entering the territory of significant earnings. However, I don't expect this to happen before August. I then plan to take a 5-buy-in shot at $3-$6 when the bankroll is at $15,000, moving back down to $2-$4 if that is unsuccessful.

I intend to review this plan every month and I will update the blog with future amendments to the plan. However, I do not plan on making as many posts as I have been doing. I have put a lot of effort into writing posts that I thought might appeal to the thinking poker player and I have been disappointed by the lack of comments received, despite having quite a few readers.