This week has been very disappointing.
First of all, I only managed to play about 7 hours, as opposed to my target of 12-15. Then, I failed to get my money in very well, and I failed to get as lucky as I have done for the last few weeks.
I lost $60 on the week - so while not a disaster it was a stutter at best.
I actually missed playing a couple of days, which is unusual for me as I normally manage to fit an hour in on even the busiest of days. The days after I had missed a day were the worst results. I'm pretty sure this is not a coincidence.
I was too eager to play on both Tuesday and Friday and racked up losses those days of $380 in only 3.5 hours play. I got my money in really badly on Friday, even overbet bluffing the river with a missed straight draw against quad Aces.
All in all, a poor week. However, I have stuck to my review plan and get some solace from that. Its reassuring to know that when I play well I generate money, when I play crap I generate losses. I can't argue with that: that's the way poker works.
Also, even though I haven't made a withdrawal yet I have changed my plan on how much to withdraw. Here is the latest plan:
1. Withdraw 100% of my 'true' win for the month
2. If this exceeds 25% of month-end bankroll, cap at this level
3. If I have a true losing month I withdraw nothing.
This has quite a lot of benefits, namely:
1. My earn is related to my 'true' win ie. not affected by luck
2. My bankroll is maintained at a reasonable level
3. Rakeback is re-invested into the bankroll
4. Good luck is re-invested into the bankroll
It sound like a good solution to the conflicting problems of funding steady income and allowing bankroll growth. Let's see.
Monday, 25 June 2007
Thursday, 21 June 2007
Calculating luck
A couple of months ago, after what I thought was a particularly bad run of luck,I came up with a method of quantifying luck. I wanted to make sure my run of poor results was at least partly due to bad luck.
I decided that I would analyse all pots ending in showdown, where the total pot was at least 50 times the big blind. I decided to look at these 'big' pots for a couple of reasons: (1) They were statistically the most significant factor affecting results; and (2) they were relatively few in number and could be reviewed quite quickly.
Basically my calculations determine two things:
- how well (or badly) I got my money in, and
- how was the outcome, compared with the expectation.
Its best to demonstrate my method by going through a few examples. (All examples feature $0.50 & $1 blinds with all players starting the hand with $100. Rake is ignored).
Eg1
- I am on the button with AA, and an early position players raises to $4 with KK, I reraise to $16 and he goes all-in. I call, so the pot is $201.50.
- I am an 81% favourite, so my true win is (0.81*201.5)-100 = $63.22. Or, I have bet $100 and my pot equity is $163.22
- If I lose the pot, I have been unlucky to the tune of $163.22, ie. pot equity compared with return.
- If I win the pot, I have been lucky to the tune of $38.28, again, pot equity compared with return.
Eg2 (same hands as Eg1)
- EP limps for $1, 4 callers for $1, I raise to $6, EP re-raises to $20, everybody fold round to me, who raises again to $40. EP calls and we see the flop. The flop is K82 rainbow, EP check calls my $60 flop bet.
- My EV in the hand is calculated as:
I decided that I would analyse all pots ending in showdown, where the total pot was at least 50 times the big blind. I decided to look at these 'big' pots for a couple of reasons: (1) They were statistically the most significant factor affecting results; and (2) they were relatively few in number and could be reviewed quite quickly.
Basically my calculations determine two things:
- how well (or badly) I got my money in, and
- how was the outcome, compared with the expectation.
Its best to demonstrate my method by going through a few examples. (All examples feature $0.50 & $1 blinds with all players starting the hand with $100. Rake is ignored).
Eg1
- I am on the button with AA, and an early position players raises to $4 with KK, I reraise to $16 and he goes all-in. I call, so the pot is $201.50.
- I am an 81% favourite, so my true win is (0.81*201.5)-100 = $63.22. Or, I have bet $100 and my pot equity is $163.22
- If I lose the pot, I have been unlucky to the tune of $163.22, ie. pot equity compared with return.
- If I win the pot, I have been lucky to the tune of $38.28, again, pot equity compared with return.
Eg2 (same hands as Eg1)
- EP limps for $1, 4 callers for $1, I raise to $6, EP re-raises to $20, everybody fold round to me, who raises again to $40. EP calls and we see the flop. The flop is K82 rainbow, EP check calls my $60 flop bet.
- My EV in the hand is calculated as:
- Pre-flop: (0.81*85.50) = 69.25 +
- Flop: (0.09*120) = 10.80 [I now have a 9% chance to win the pot]
- TOTAL EV $80.05
- My true loss in the hand is $100 - $80.05 = $19.95
- If I lose the pot, I have been unlucky to the tune of $80.05
- If I win the pot, I have been lucky to the tune of $125.45
Adding up all of these hands for a day or so, it can have a huge impact on actuals results. In theory, over time, the impact on results should average out to somewhere approaching 0%.
At the time of writing, I am ahead of the curve. I have won approx $400 more than my calculated EV since 29th May.
This allows me to be more objective in reviewing my results than I might otherwise be. I can look at a good week and keep my feet on the ground because it may be largely due to winning more than my share of the big pots.
What it doesn't do is keep a track of 'situational luck' ie. the luck you need to get in a profitable situation eg. AA v KK. Obviously this should even out over time too, but its a hell of a lot more difficult to calculate than EV luck.
Also. having calculated my 'big pot results' (true and actual), I can then calculate my small pot results. As there are many more of these (approx 95:1 ratio), luck in these pots should even out more quickly.
A side benefit is that I force myself to review all big pots to see how I played them, as well as calculate how lucky (or unlucky) I was.
Monday, 18 June 2007
A good week
I managed to win every day except Sunday this week. In just over 3000 hands I won just over $500. This is very good at these stakes.
I ran well in the big pots, to the tune of about $150 so the true win amount was $350. In 9 hours this is a very respectable $38 per hour.
The bankroll stands at $3400, as rakeback from May ($160) was received this week too.
As far as the results go, so far so good. However, even after a week of wins, I did find myself getting a bit annoyed during the losing session on Sunday night. This is quite distressing. It was almost as if I had got used to winning being the natural order of things and losing was not really something that should happen. Of course this is a long way from the reality of poker.
The last major hand of the week was a semi-gamble, although to be fair I did pick a maniac player to gamble with. The maniac raised to $3.50 from early position and after a mid-position caller I re-raised from the button to $13.50 with Q10 of spades. Only the maniac called. The flop came QK3 (two spades) and the maniac bet out $25. I thought his most likely hand contained a King, but there was a reasonable chance he never had one, so I pushed all-in for $130. He called all-in for $125 and turned over AK (with the Ace of spades). The turn came a spade and I won a big pot.
Without this pot I would have had a $220 winning week, but obviously my luck factor would have been different. (My total equity in this pot was approx $125).
This is not a pot to be particularly proud of, but against his range of hands, its probably a winning play. Against his actual hand, it was a marginally losing play, although I did take the lead, giving me some fold equity also (especially pre-flop).
I ran well in the big pots, to the tune of about $150 so the true win amount was $350. In 9 hours this is a very respectable $38 per hour.
The bankroll stands at $3400, as rakeback from May ($160) was received this week too.
As far as the results go, so far so good. However, even after a week of wins, I did find myself getting a bit annoyed during the losing session on Sunday night. This is quite distressing. It was almost as if I had got used to winning being the natural order of things and losing was not really something that should happen. Of course this is a long way from the reality of poker.
The last major hand of the week was a semi-gamble, although to be fair I did pick a maniac player to gamble with. The maniac raised to $3.50 from early position and after a mid-position caller I re-raised from the button to $13.50 with Q10 of spades. Only the maniac called. The flop came QK3 (two spades) and the maniac bet out $25. I thought his most likely hand contained a King, but there was a reasonable chance he never had one, so I pushed all-in for $130. He called all-in for $125 and turned over AK (with the Ace of spades). The turn came a spade and I won a big pot.
Without this pot I would have had a $220 winning week, but obviously my luck factor would have been different. (My total equity in this pot was approx $125).
This is not a pot to be particularly proud of, but against his range of hands, its probably a winning play. Against his actual hand, it was a marginally losing play, although I did take the lead, giving me some fold equity also (especially pre-flop).
Monday, 11 June 2007
A steady week
I played OK last week.
Having started the week playing 9-handed, I decided on Tuesday that the make-up of the tables wasnt particularly helpful to my style of play and decided to go to 6-max. I thought there were too many set-miners, and they played that particular game better than me.
6-max, I think, attracts a higher proportion of the "drop-in gambler" type players, so I decided to give this a go for a while. So far so good.
I've run well this week, to the value of approx $240 [1], so my win for the week of $390 is hardly fantastic. The "true" win figure of $150 means that I have won about $10 per hour, plus about $3 per hour in rakeback.
I wont be going pro just yet but its not bad income from a hobby, and at these stakes its not stressful at all.
The bankroll at the end of the week is just over $2700 with at least another $240 accrued rakeback to come. I should be OK to withdraw $500 at the end of the month. Remember - if I go bust, that the end of my poker career.
[1] - I will provide more on how I calculate this in a later post.
Having started the week playing 9-handed, I decided on Tuesday that the make-up of the tables wasnt particularly helpful to my style of play and decided to go to 6-max. I thought there were too many set-miners, and they played that particular game better than me.
6-max, I think, attracts a higher proportion of the "drop-in gambler" type players, so I decided to give this a go for a while. So far so good.
I've run well this week, to the value of approx $240 [1], so my win for the week of $390 is hardly fantastic. The "true" win figure of $150 means that I have won about $10 per hour, plus about $3 per hour in rakeback.
I wont be going pro just yet but its not bad income from a hobby, and at these stakes its not stressful at all.
The bankroll at the end of the week is just over $2700 with at least another $240 accrued rakeback to come. I should be OK to withdraw $500 at the end of the month. Remember - if I go bust, that the end of my poker career.
[1] - I will provide more on how I calculate this in a later post.
Tuesday, 5 June 2007
Folding Kings (nearly)
I nearly folded KK correctly the other day. I just couldn't bring myself to do it.
Here's how it happened. You tell me if you would have played it differently:
I ($100) limped UTG for $1, UTG+1 (LAG - $90) made it $4 to go, folded round to the BB (absolute rock! - 8% VPIP 3% PFR, $36 behind) who re-raises to $9.
I was sure the BB's range was AA-KK but called anyway for $8 more.
Flop ($27) came 222. BB checked, I bet $8 (maybe he's got AK, dont want to give a free card to the LAG behind me), LAG calls, BB calls (OK, he's got AA).
Turn another rag. BB checks again, I bet $8 (same reasons as before), LAG calls, BB calls.
River Q. BB checks again, I check (happy for free show-down), LAG bets $30, BB calls all-in for $20 ($10 in side pot), I call $30.
Showdown - LAG 1010 (stupid river bet), BB AA, me KK.
Here's how it happened. You tell me if you would have played it differently:
I ($100) limped UTG for $1, UTG+1 (LAG - $90) made it $4 to go, folded round to the BB (absolute rock! - 8% VPIP 3% PFR, $36 behind) who re-raises to $9.
I was sure the BB's range was AA-KK but called anyway for $8 more.
Flop ($27) came 222. BB checked, I bet $8 (maybe he's got AK, dont want to give a free card to the LAG behind me), LAG calls, BB calls (OK, he's got AA).
Turn another rag. BB checks again, I bet $8 (same reasons as before), LAG calls, BB calls.
River Q. BB checks again, I check (happy for free show-down), LAG bets $30, BB calls all-in for $20 ($10 in side pot), I call $30.
Showdown - LAG 1010 (stupid river bet), BB AA, me KK.
Revised goals! Bank-roll building plans?
A disappointing week all in all. After a good start I had a $190 loss on Sunday night which reduced week 1 profits to $155. So not exactly earth-shattering results after 12 hours play. A further $100 was released from my start-up bonus (Full Tilt), so the bankroll was up to $2,255.
On a happier note, I actually played quite well for most of the week.
However, I have thought about the plan to withdraw $1,900 at the end of each month and decided that at the current stakes this is unrealistic.
Revised Plan - WITHDRAW 20% of the BANKROLL at the end of each month. In effect, this means that I have to win 25% of the month's starting bankroll to retain the same bankroll at the end of the month. I feel that this is achieveable, and it allows for a steady (hopefully increasing) income.
On a happier note, I actually played quite well for most of the week.
However, I have thought about the plan to withdraw $1,900 at the end of each month and decided that at the current stakes this is unrealistic.
Revised Plan - WITHDRAW 20% of the BANKROLL at the end of each month. In effect, this means that I have to win 25% of the month's starting bankroll to retain the same bankroll at the end of the month. I feel that this is achieveable, and it allows for a steady (hopefully increasing) income.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
