Last week was really tough. It started out slow and on Wednesday I suffered my worst day in terms of losses, before breaking the record again on Thursday. For those in the know, this represented almost 4 buy-ins. Hopefully the family members reading this wont know exactly how much that is, as they are unlikely to understand that these sorts of things happen from time to time, and to put it in ‘real money’ context it is actually a lot of money to most people.
There were a couple of issues that annoyed me this week:
The first was that when I started losing on Wednesday I got annoyed and started to play too loose and too aggressive: otherwise known as tilting. I lost track of what my table image was and tried too many bluffs against decent opponents who were reading me well at the time. With hindsight, leaving the game was the best option.
Secondly, I was conscious of how these losses would look to my blog readers, in particular non-poker-playing friends and family. I was putting myself under pressure to get the losses back so I could avoid reporting them on this blog. As any decent poker player will know, the past results are almost totally irrelevant and should very rarely be a factor in current decision-making. It’s also a well-known scientific fact that the process of observing an event has an impact on the actual event itself. This was a case in point.
Every couple of days my wife asks me how I’ve done and this puts me in an awkward position. I never tell her the actual ‘cash’ results as I believe these are irrelevant. I hate having to tell her the ‘theoretical results’ too as there are big swings in these and I would rather keep her away from these swings. As a poker player of eight years I have become used to the swings and so am less-affected emotionally by them. However, telling a layman that you have won $1000 one day and lost $800 the next, I’m sure, would elicit some sort of reaction along the lines of “Oh my god!” or “Why didn’t you not play today?” The problem is we can’t really predict when there will be wins or losses. We can only use our judgement and decide to play a game because we expect it to be favourable: sometimes we will win, sometimes lose, but we expect to win more than we lose.
Looking back at the start of this blog, the main reason for starting it up was as means to regulate my play. I wanted the blog to stop me from playing badly, as I didnt want to report that I had done something stupid and lost all of my money. My success in the last 3-4 months in particular has come about because I have consistently played at or near my best.
However, the pressure to not do anything stupid has been replaced in my own mind by a pressure to keep posting good results, or at least never post bad results. I have to change my thought process as a result of my much improved level of play and emotional control. I need to continue to be honest with myself and aim to play well, make good decisions and not be influenced by unhelpful irrelevant factors like short-term results and the anticipated reactions of non-poker-playing family and friends. It's that simple: make good decisions, play well, remain emotionally detached from the game and reap the long-term benefits.
Despite all of that, I am going to stop writing up a weekly scorecard for the time being as I don’t want this to influence my play during the week. I don’t want to be afraid of losing as this is a good way to ensure that it’ll happen. Instead I am going to report my total winnings per hour (now $62.78), as well as my winnings per hour at the current game level ($5-$10: $98.68/hr). As I’ve played well over 300 hours now in total, and over 200 hours at $5-$10, even an extraordinary weekly results will not massively affect these figures. The long-term aim is to keep these figures as high as possible.
Oh, and for the record, this week’s loss was a record $1,705. Oops.
Monday 26 November 2007
Monday 19 November 2007
A tough way to make an easy living
I managed about 10 hours of play this week and it was once again a rollercoaster ride. Without a bankroll this is just not possible to sustain. Not only does the bankroll prevent me from running out of funds, it also prevents me from going on tilt. This is just as well, because if I tilted away my bankroll now I would never forgive myself and would carry out the earlier pledge to never play again.
On Monday I played really well on a fairly tough table, running my $1,000 buy-in up to $1,400 before disaster struck in the form of KK v AA. I lost it all on that hand and called it quits for the night.
Losing with KK v AA is generally accepted as being a cold-deck situation that you shouldn’t worry too much about. Its considered by a lot of pros that there’s nothing you can do to avoid losing your money, especially if the flop comes low and offsuit. However, I wondered if I could have managed to save some money as my opponent checked the turn after re-raising pre-flop and firing a decent amount on the flop. I suspected AA going from a previous hand, and if I had checked behind on the turn I guess he would have made a smaller value-bet on the river than the all-in bet I made for him on the turn. $200-$300 saved here would have added nicely to the week’s bottom line.
On Tuesday I started really well and recouped the vast majority of Monday’s losses before hitting trip Jacks on a QJ8 flop only to find myself against a loose-aggressive player with the nut straight. I don’t see how I could have saved any money here. This was another $1,000 loss to wipe out all of the good work that came before it.
The good news is that from Wednesday onwards things improved. I won lots of small pots and a couple of big ones too. More importantly, I never got big money into the pot in bad shape again.
On Sunday night I got 3-way action holding top-set on a draw-heavy board and amazingly the only live draw against me was to a runner-runner-non-board-pairing flush. KK v K10 v 1010, flop K107. Nice work if you can get it, although it was a shame their stacks were only $500 and $800!
After the ups and downs this week I was delighted with the result of +$3,072 although it must be said that this was by no means an easy week.
On Monday I played really well on a fairly tough table, running my $1,000 buy-in up to $1,400 before disaster struck in the form of KK v AA. I lost it all on that hand and called it quits for the night.
Losing with KK v AA is generally accepted as being a cold-deck situation that you shouldn’t worry too much about. Its considered by a lot of pros that there’s nothing you can do to avoid losing your money, especially if the flop comes low and offsuit. However, I wondered if I could have managed to save some money as my opponent checked the turn after re-raising pre-flop and firing a decent amount on the flop. I suspected AA going from a previous hand, and if I had checked behind on the turn I guess he would have made a smaller value-bet on the river than the all-in bet I made for him on the turn. $200-$300 saved here would have added nicely to the week’s bottom line.
On Tuesday I started really well and recouped the vast majority of Monday’s losses before hitting trip Jacks on a QJ8 flop only to find myself against a loose-aggressive player with the nut straight. I don’t see how I could have saved any money here. This was another $1,000 loss to wipe out all of the good work that came before it.
The good news is that from Wednesday onwards things improved. I won lots of small pots and a couple of big ones too. More importantly, I never got big money into the pot in bad shape again.
On Sunday night I got 3-way action holding top-set on a draw-heavy board and amazingly the only live draw against me was to a runner-runner-non-board-pairing flush. KK v K10 v 1010, flop K107. Nice work if you can get it, although it was a shame their stacks were only $500 and $800!
After the ups and downs this week I was delighted with the result of +$3,072 although it must be said that this was by no means an easy week.
Monday 12 November 2007
After the Lord Mayor's show....
I had a losing week this week. I had a bad session on Wednesday, losing $1500 or thereabouts, recovered with a good session on Friday but recorded another Sunday loss – this time just over $500 – to finish the week down $770.
Whenever I have losses I always like to review what’s happened to see if I could have done anything different. Actually, the answer is the same as when I have won: there are always things I could have done better and in itself that is a positive.
There have been a lot more winning weeks than losers in the last 3 or 4 months and overall I am nicely ahead. However, it still feels a bit weird losing, and that is something I need to keep an eye on as I don’t want the fear of losing to creep into my game.
What’s interesting is that I can now almost totally ignore the cash-flow element of the game and concentrate on the theoretical win/loss. Here’s an example from this week:
I limp in early position for $10 with AK suited. A fairly tight short-stack ($230) makes it $55 to go and a loose-goose (who has my $1100 covered) calls. I know I have the loose-goose beat and am happy to gamble for $230 against the shorty’s range here, but I want to give myself the best opportunity to make the loose-goose fold pre-flop as I am out of position with lots left to bet. I re-raise to $110, so allowing the shorty to go all-in, and thus forcing the loose-goose to possibly face a decision for all of his chips. If he calls the $230 I will without doubt go all-in for $1100. Anyway, LG folds and I call the extra $120 to see all 5 cards.
When all the cards are out there is a possible flush on board and a 1-card straight. I make TPTK on the 9J2,K,Q board and shorty takes it with a flush (Ace-Ten). I am more than happy to see the chips slide his way, as long as he had to get lucky to win them.
Whenever I have losses I always like to review what’s happened to see if I could have done anything different. Actually, the answer is the same as when I have won: there are always things I could have done better and in itself that is a positive.
There have been a lot more winning weeks than losers in the last 3 or 4 months and overall I am nicely ahead. However, it still feels a bit weird losing, and that is something I need to keep an eye on as I don’t want the fear of losing to creep into my game.
What’s interesting is that I can now almost totally ignore the cash-flow element of the game and concentrate on the theoretical win/loss. Here’s an example from this week:
I limp in early position for $10 with AK suited. A fairly tight short-stack ($230) makes it $55 to go and a loose-goose (who has my $1100 covered) calls. I know I have the loose-goose beat and am happy to gamble for $230 against the shorty’s range here, but I want to give myself the best opportunity to make the loose-goose fold pre-flop as I am out of position with lots left to bet. I re-raise to $110, so allowing the shorty to go all-in, and thus forcing the loose-goose to possibly face a decision for all of his chips. If he calls the $230 I will without doubt go all-in for $1100. Anyway, LG folds and I call the extra $120 to see all 5 cards.
When all the cards are out there is a possible flush on board and a 1-card straight. I make TPTK on the 9J2,K,Q board and shorty takes it with a flush (Ace-Ten). I am more than happy to see the chips slide his way, as long as he had to get lucky to win them.
Monday 5 November 2007
Passing the $20,000 mark
After a bumpy ride over the last couple of weeks, admittedly more up than down, it was nice to record a week without any losing days. I only actually managed to play just over 8 hours in total, but a record win of $3,512 was more than welcome.
Of the big pots I played (16 in all), I managed to get the money in really well. The $8,430 wagered produced a return of $3,323 (a massive 39%). Obviously, this is due in large part to finding myself in many favourable situations. Here are some of the best ones:
(1) Playing heads-up, I raised from the SB with QQ and called the re-raise from the BB. We got all-in on the flop of 986 and my Queens held up against the BB’s J6 (nice re-raise!) for a $2,000 pot
(2) I raised with AJ and got 4 callers, which didn’t please me until the flop came down KQT rainbow, giving me the nuts. I managed to get a total of almost $600 into the pot whilst almost totally unbeatable. Then, on the turn, the other player with decent chips decided I was bluffing and proceeded to put his remaining $624 in whilst drawing dead. This pot alone was worth $1,078 in equity.
(3) I hit trips (the silent killer) in a raised pot against AK, with the dream flop of K92 and the dream opponent who thought that TPTK was the nuts. This was good for another $2,300 pot.
(4) I hit trips again from UTG (66 on a 643 flop) against what seemed to be an obvious big pair. He didn’t disappoint me and couldn’t wait to get all-in by the turn. This generated another $800+ in equity.
The biggest losing pot of the week I went in with AK (no pair, no draw) on a 775 flop, but in all fairness it was against a guy who had been betting and raising every hand for the last 10 minutes. The only problem was this time he had KK and I was drawing very thin. That was a loss of almost $1,200.
Reading this, it could appear to the casual observer that all you have to do to win at poker is hit the flop and then get paid off by some donkey with an inferior hand. In reality, its much more difficult than that. Its only by getting involved occasionally with the worst hand that you can get action when you have the best hand. There are many small pots that are little more than jabs, attempting to set up the opening for the huge knockout blow that wins all the chips. Also, even when you have the best possible hand, there is still a huge skill element in deciding how much to bet. This requires the ability to estimate what your opponent holds and how much value he is likely to put on that holding. Sometimes you get it wrong and win nothing (as they fold), other times you are spot on and manage to persuade them to lose all their chips.
I observed an amazing run from an opponent this week. He sat down with only $200 and after picking up AA, AQ (Q-high flop) and K7 (KK9 flop, K on the turn) he was sat in front of $2,000 after his first 3 hands at the table. It didn't last however, as he seemed intent on being involved in every hand. He lost $1,200 of it to me 2 hands later with AK against my trip 2s (see above) and another chunk a few hands later. Within another 20 minutes the rest had gone too, including his original $200: a truly incredible run!
This week’s win has seen me crash through the $20,000 barrier since this escapade began. To be honest, this wasn’t something I was expecting much before May next year, so its great to be way ahead of schedule. Obviously its possible that I can dip below $20,000 again, but hopefully it will be onwards and upwards.
Bankroll-wise, my wife has asked me "how much is enough?" I’m not sure what the answer to that it, but I feel much more comfortable making the right playing decisions when there are no bankroll considerations to factor in to the equation: these are totally unwanted distractions. I feel that $25,000 is an adequate bankroll for the level I am playing but it must be remembered that I have enjoyed lots of good luck in the last 5 months (more than my fair share, to the value of about $11,000). It wouldn’t be a great shock to me to find the bankroll stagnating or even going down. I still plan to withdraw 10% per month, so in the next few days I should be taking out about $2,900 to go towards real-life expenses. The rest will remain ‘unspendable’ until its time to withdraw again next month. Hopefully this way, I can build a solid, significant and sustainable additional income stream. It sure beats any other part-time job I could get.
Of the big pots I played (16 in all), I managed to get the money in really well. The $8,430 wagered produced a return of $3,323 (a massive 39%). Obviously, this is due in large part to finding myself in many favourable situations. Here are some of the best ones:
(1) Playing heads-up, I raised from the SB with QQ and called the re-raise from the BB. We got all-in on the flop of 986 and my Queens held up against the BB’s J6 (nice re-raise!) for a $2,000 pot
(2) I raised with AJ and got 4 callers, which didn’t please me until the flop came down KQT rainbow, giving me the nuts. I managed to get a total of almost $600 into the pot whilst almost totally unbeatable. Then, on the turn, the other player with decent chips decided I was bluffing and proceeded to put his remaining $624 in whilst drawing dead. This pot alone was worth $1,078 in equity.
(3) I hit trips (the silent killer) in a raised pot against AK, with the dream flop of K92 and the dream opponent who thought that TPTK was the nuts. This was good for another $2,300 pot.
(4) I hit trips again from UTG (66 on a 643 flop) against what seemed to be an obvious big pair. He didn’t disappoint me and couldn’t wait to get all-in by the turn. This generated another $800+ in equity.
The biggest losing pot of the week I went in with AK (no pair, no draw) on a 775 flop, but in all fairness it was against a guy who had been betting and raising every hand for the last 10 minutes. The only problem was this time he had KK and I was drawing very thin. That was a loss of almost $1,200.
Reading this, it could appear to the casual observer that all you have to do to win at poker is hit the flop and then get paid off by some donkey with an inferior hand. In reality, its much more difficult than that. Its only by getting involved occasionally with the worst hand that you can get action when you have the best hand. There are many small pots that are little more than jabs, attempting to set up the opening for the huge knockout blow that wins all the chips. Also, even when you have the best possible hand, there is still a huge skill element in deciding how much to bet. This requires the ability to estimate what your opponent holds and how much value he is likely to put on that holding. Sometimes you get it wrong and win nothing (as they fold), other times you are spot on and manage to persuade them to lose all their chips.
I observed an amazing run from an opponent this week. He sat down with only $200 and after picking up AA, AQ (Q-high flop) and K7 (KK9 flop, K on the turn) he was sat in front of $2,000 after his first 3 hands at the table. It didn't last however, as he seemed intent on being involved in every hand. He lost $1,200 of it to me 2 hands later with AK against my trip 2s (see above) and another chunk a few hands later. Within another 20 minutes the rest had gone too, including his original $200: a truly incredible run!
This week’s win has seen me crash through the $20,000 barrier since this escapade began. To be honest, this wasn’t something I was expecting much before May next year, so its great to be way ahead of schedule. Obviously its possible that I can dip below $20,000 again, but hopefully it will be onwards and upwards.
Bankroll-wise, my wife has asked me "how much is enough?" I’m not sure what the answer to that it, but I feel much more comfortable making the right playing decisions when there are no bankroll considerations to factor in to the equation: these are totally unwanted distractions. I feel that $25,000 is an adequate bankroll for the level I am playing but it must be remembered that I have enjoyed lots of good luck in the last 5 months (more than my fair share, to the value of about $11,000). It wouldn’t be a great shock to me to find the bankroll stagnating or even going down. I still plan to withdraw 10% per month, so in the next few days I should be taking out about $2,900 to go towards real-life expenses. The rest will remain ‘unspendable’ until its time to withdraw again next month. Hopefully this way, I can build a solid, significant and sustainable additional income stream. It sure beats any other part-time job I could get.
Thursday 1 November 2007
October consigned to history
Big pot 'true winnings': $5,833.66
Small pot losses: $(570.50)
Rakeback received: $127.82
True winnings (total): $5,390.98
----------
Hands played: 5,798
Hours played: 60:45
Win rate per hour: $88.74
Win rate per 100 hands: $92.98 (4.65ptbb)
----------
Bankroll at 1 Oct: $18,277.63
True win: $5,390.98
Good luck in big pots: $5,333.07
Withdrawal: $(2,159.00)
Bankroll at 31 Oct: $26,842.68
-----------------------------------------------------
My thoughts:
This has been a tricky month, and I am happy to get through to the end of it with a nice win. Once again, I have run very well in the big pots. I am sure this undeserved extra help to the bankroll has helped me maintain my equilibrium in the tough times. Who knows what would have happened without it.
I have done reasonably well (EV-wise) in the big pots this month, despite having been involved in so many more than the previous two months put together. I think this is a reflection of the action there has been during the month. There have been a lot of new faces and they have generally been willing to play big pots. I have loosened up a bit compared to previous months and this has meant that results have been a bit more up-and-down.
I lost money in the small pots (ie. those with showdown and pot size < $400, or those with no showdown) and this probably reflects an increase in looseness of the average opponent. Earlier in the month I was way down in this area, and had to adjust to reflect that I was unable to steal as many small and medium-sized pots as I had in previous months.
The bankroll has now reached a very healthy position, due in large part to my continued good luck in the biggest pots. I have no plans to move up in stakes, as I am sure the $10-$20 game would put great strains on a 13 buy-in bankroll. When I do eventually move up, I expect the games to be more aggressive and more frequently short-handed. Both of these factors point to higher variance. Also, if my relative win-rate is lower than at $5-$10, which it more than likely will be, this also indicates a higher expected variance per win-rate, increasing bankroll pressure.
I am happy to have maintained an hourly rate around the $100 mark for the last 3 months, and see no reason to jeopardise that by moving up to $10-$20. I aim to win $5000 per month for the time being and as the bankroll increases my monthly 10% withdrawal will continue to be significant to our household income.
Small pot losses: $(570.50)
Rakeback received: $127.82
True winnings (total): $5,390.98
----------
Hands played: 5,798
Hours played: 60:45
Win rate per hour: $88.74
Win rate per 100 hands: $92.98 (4.65ptbb)
----------
Bankroll at 1 Oct: $18,277.63
True win: $5,390.98
Good luck in big pots: $5,333.07
Withdrawal: $(2,159.00)
Bankroll at 31 Oct: $26,842.68
-----------------------------------------------------
My thoughts:
This has been a tricky month, and I am happy to get through to the end of it with a nice win. Once again, I have run very well in the big pots. I am sure this undeserved extra help to the bankroll has helped me maintain my equilibrium in the tough times. Who knows what would have happened without it.
I have done reasonably well (EV-wise) in the big pots this month, despite having been involved in so many more than the previous two months put together. I think this is a reflection of the action there has been during the month. There have been a lot of new faces and they have generally been willing to play big pots. I have loosened up a bit compared to previous months and this has meant that results have been a bit more up-and-down.
I lost money in the small pots (ie. those with showdown and pot size < $400, or those with no showdown) and this probably reflects an increase in looseness of the average opponent. Earlier in the month I was way down in this area, and had to adjust to reflect that I was unable to steal as many small and medium-sized pots as I had in previous months.
The bankroll has now reached a very healthy position, due in large part to my continued good luck in the biggest pots. I have no plans to move up in stakes, as I am sure the $10-$20 game would put great strains on a 13 buy-in bankroll. When I do eventually move up, I expect the games to be more aggressive and more frequently short-handed. Both of these factors point to higher variance. Also, if my relative win-rate is lower than at $5-$10, which it more than likely will be, this also indicates a higher expected variance per win-rate, increasing bankroll pressure.
I am happy to have maintained an hourly rate around the $100 mark for the last 3 months, and see no reason to jeopardise that by moving up to $10-$20. I aim to win $5000 per month for the time being and as the bankroll increases my monthly 10% withdrawal will continue to be significant to our household income.
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