Monday 5 November 2007

Passing the $20,000 mark

After a bumpy ride over the last couple of weeks, admittedly more up than down, it was nice to record a week without any losing days. I only actually managed to play just over 8 hours in total, but a record win of $3,512 was more than welcome.

Of the big pots I played (16 in all), I managed to get the money in really well. The $8,430 wagered produced a return of $3,323 (a massive 39%). Obviously, this is due in large part to finding myself in many favourable situations. Here are some of the best ones:

(1) Playing heads-up, I raised from the SB with QQ and called the re-raise from the BB. We got all-in on the flop of 986 and my Queens held up against the BB’s J6 (nice re-raise!) for a $2,000 pot
(2) I raised with AJ and got 4 callers, which didn’t please me until the flop came down KQT rainbow, giving me the nuts. I managed to get a total of almost $600 into the pot whilst almost totally unbeatable. Then, on the turn, the other player with decent chips decided I was bluffing and proceeded to put his remaining $624 in whilst drawing dead. This pot alone was worth $1,078 in equity.
(3) I hit trips (the silent killer) in a raised pot against AK, with the dream flop of K92 and the dream opponent who thought that TPTK was the nuts. This was good for another $2,300 pot.
(4) I hit trips again from UTG (66 on a 643 flop) against what seemed to be an obvious big pair. He didn’t disappoint me and couldn’t wait to get all-in by the turn. This generated another $800+ in equity.

The biggest losing pot of the week I went in with AK (no pair, no draw) on a 775 flop, but in all fairness it was against a guy who had been betting and raising every hand for the last 10 minutes. The only problem was this time he had KK and I was drawing very thin. That was a loss of almost $1,200.

Reading this, it could appear to the casual observer that all you have to do to win at poker is hit the flop and then get paid off by some donkey with an inferior hand. In reality, its much more difficult than that. Its only by getting involved occasionally with the worst hand that you can get action when you have the best hand. There are many small pots that are little more than jabs, attempting to set up the opening for the huge knockout blow that wins all the chips. Also, even when you have the best possible hand, there is still a huge skill element in deciding how much to bet. This requires the ability to estimate what your opponent holds and how much value he is likely to put on that holding. Sometimes you get it wrong and win nothing (as they fold), other times you are spot on and manage to persuade them to lose all their chips.

I observed an amazing run from an opponent this week. He sat down with only $200 and after picking up AA, AQ (Q-high flop) and K7 (KK9 flop, K on the turn) he was sat in front of $2,000 after his first 3 hands at the table. It didn't last however, as he seemed intent on being involved in every hand. He lost $1,200 of it to me 2 hands later with AK against my trip 2s (see above) and another chunk a few hands later. Within another 20 minutes the rest had gone too, including his original $200: a truly incredible run!

This week’s win has seen me crash through the $20,000 barrier since this escapade began. To be honest, this wasn’t something I was expecting much before May next year, so its great to be way ahead of schedule. Obviously its possible that I can dip below $20,000 again, but hopefully it will be onwards and upwards.

Bankroll-wise, my wife has asked me "how much is enough?" I’m not sure what the answer to that it, but I feel much more comfortable making the right playing decisions when there are no bankroll considerations to factor in to the equation: these are totally unwanted distractions. I feel that $25,000 is an adequate bankroll for the level I am playing but it must be remembered that I have enjoyed lots of good luck in the last 5 months (more than my fair share, to the value of about $11,000). It wouldn’t be a great shock to me to find the bankroll stagnating or even going down. I still plan to withdraw 10% per month, so in the next few days I should be taking out about $2,900 to go towards real-life expenses. The rest will remain ‘unspendable’ until its time to withdraw again next month. Hopefully this way, I can build a solid, significant and sustainable additional income stream. It sure beats any other part-time job I could get.

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