October consigned to history

Big pot 'true winnings': $5,833.66
Small pot losses: $(570.50)
Rakeback received: $127.82

True winnings (total): $5,390.98

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Hands played: 5,798
Hours played: 60:45

Win rate per hour: $88.74
Win rate per 100 hands: $92.98 (4.65ptbb)

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Bankroll at 1 Oct: $18,277.63
True win: $5,390.98
Good luck in big pots: $5,333.07
Withdrawal: $(2,159.00)

Bankroll at 31 Oct: $26,842.68

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My thoughts:

This has been a tricky month, and I am happy to get through to the end of it with a nice win. Once again, I have run very well in the big pots. I am sure this undeserved extra help to the bankroll has helped me maintain my equilibrium in the tough times. Who knows what would have happened without it.

I have done reasonably well (EV-wise) in the big pots this month, despite having been involved in so many more than the previous two months put together. I think this is a reflection of the action there has been during the month. There have been a lot of new faces and they have generally been willing to play big pots. I have loosened up a bit compared to previous months and this has meant that results have been a bit more up-and-down.

I lost money in the small pots (ie. those with showdown and pot size < $400, or those with no showdown) and this probably reflects an increase in looseness of the average opponent. Earlier in the month I was way down in this area, and had to adjust to reflect that I was unable to steal as many small and medium-sized pots as I had in previous months.

The bankroll has now reached a very healthy position, due in large part to my continued good luck in the biggest pots. I have no plans to move up in stakes, as I am sure the $10-$20 game would put great strains on a 13 buy-in bankroll. When I do eventually move up, I expect the games to be more aggressive and more frequently short-handed. Both of these factors point to higher variance. Also, if my relative win-rate is lower than at $5-$10, which it more than likely will be, this also indicates a higher expected variance per win-rate, increasing bankroll pressure.

I am happy to have maintained an hourly rate around the $100 mark for the last 3 months, and see no reason to jeopardise that by moving up to $10-$20. I aim to win $5000 per month for the time being and as the bankroll increases my monthly 10% withdrawal will continue to be significant to our household income.