I had a losing week this week. I had a bad session on Wednesday, losing $1500 or thereabouts, recovered with a good session on Friday but recorded another Sunday loss – this time just over $500 – to finish the week down $770.
Whenever I have losses I always like to review what’s happened to see if I could have done anything different. Actually, the answer is the same as when I have won: there are always things I could have done better and in itself that is a positive.
There have been a lot more winning weeks than losers in the last 3 or 4 months and overall I am nicely ahead. However, it still feels a bit weird losing, and that is something I need to keep an eye on as I don’t want the fear of losing to creep into my game.
What’s interesting is that I can now almost totally ignore the cash-flow element of the game and concentrate on the theoretical win/loss. Here’s an example from this week:
I limp in early position for $10 with AK suited. A fairly tight short-stack ($230) makes it $55 to go and a loose-goose (who has my $1100 covered) calls. I know I have the loose-goose beat and am happy to gamble for $230 against the shorty’s range here, but I want to give myself the best opportunity to make the loose-goose fold pre-flop as I am out of position with lots left to bet. I re-raise to $110, so allowing the shorty to go all-in, and thus forcing the loose-goose to possibly face a decision for all of his chips. If he calls the $230 I will without doubt go all-in for $1100. Anyway, LG folds and I call the extra $120 to see all 5 cards.
When all the cards are out there is a possible flush on board and a 1-card straight. I make TPTK on the 9J2,K,Q board and shorty takes it with a flush (Ace-Ten). I am more than happy to see the chips slide his way, as long as he had to get lucky to win them.
Monday, 12 November 2007
Monday, 5 November 2007
Passing the $20,000 mark
After a bumpy ride over the last couple of weeks, admittedly more up than down, it was nice to record a week without any losing days. I only actually managed to play just over 8 hours in total, but a record win of $3,512 was more than welcome.
Of the big pots I played (16 in all), I managed to get the money in really well. The $8,430 wagered produced a return of $3,323 (a massive 39%). Obviously, this is due in large part to finding myself in many favourable situations. Here are some of the best ones:
(1) Playing heads-up, I raised from the SB with QQ and called the re-raise from the BB. We got all-in on the flop of 986 and my Queens held up against the BB’s J6 (nice re-raise!) for a $2,000 pot
(2) I raised with AJ and got 4 callers, which didn’t please me until the flop came down KQT rainbow, giving me the nuts. I managed to get a total of almost $600 into the pot whilst almost totally unbeatable. Then, on the turn, the other player with decent chips decided I was bluffing and proceeded to put his remaining $624 in whilst drawing dead. This pot alone was worth $1,078 in equity.
(3) I hit trips (the silent killer) in a raised pot against AK, with the dream flop of K92 and the dream opponent who thought that TPTK was the nuts. This was good for another $2,300 pot.
(4) I hit trips again from UTG (66 on a 643 flop) against what seemed to be an obvious big pair. He didn’t disappoint me and couldn’t wait to get all-in by the turn. This generated another $800+ in equity.
The biggest losing pot of the week I went in with AK (no pair, no draw) on a 775 flop, but in all fairness it was against a guy who had been betting and raising every hand for the last 10 minutes. The only problem was this time he had KK and I was drawing very thin. That was a loss of almost $1,200.
Reading this, it could appear to the casual observer that all you have to do to win at poker is hit the flop and then get paid off by some donkey with an inferior hand. In reality, its much more difficult than that. Its only by getting involved occasionally with the worst hand that you can get action when you have the best hand. There are many small pots that are little more than jabs, attempting to set up the opening for the huge knockout blow that wins all the chips. Also, even when you have the best possible hand, there is still a huge skill element in deciding how much to bet. This requires the ability to estimate what your opponent holds and how much value he is likely to put on that holding. Sometimes you get it wrong and win nothing (as they fold), other times you are spot on and manage to persuade them to lose all their chips.
I observed an amazing run from an opponent this week. He sat down with only $200 and after picking up AA, AQ (Q-high flop) and K7 (KK9 flop, K on the turn) he was sat in front of $2,000 after his first 3 hands at the table. It didn't last however, as he seemed intent on being involved in every hand. He lost $1,200 of it to me 2 hands later with AK against my trip 2s (see above) and another chunk a few hands later. Within another 20 minutes the rest had gone too, including his original $200: a truly incredible run!
This week’s win has seen me crash through the $20,000 barrier since this escapade began. To be honest, this wasn’t something I was expecting much before May next year, so its great to be way ahead of schedule. Obviously its possible that I can dip below $20,000 again, but hopefully it will be onwards and upwards.
Bankroll-wise, my wife has asked me "how much is enough?" I’m not sure what the answer to that it, but I feel much more comfortable making the right playing decisions when there are no bankroll considerations to factor in to the equation: these are totally unwanted distractions. I feel that $25,000 is an adequate bankroll for the level I am playing but it must be remembered that I have enjoyed lots of good luck in the last 5 months (more than my fair share, to the value of about $11,000). It wouldn’t be a great shock to me to find the bankroll stagnating or even going down. I still plan to withdraw 10% per month, so in the next few days I should be taking out about $2,900 to go towards real-life expenses. The rest will remain ‘unspendable’ until its time to withdraw again next month. Hopefully this way, I can build a solid, significant and sustainable additional income stream. It sure beats any other part-time job I could get.
Of the big pots I played (16 in all), I managed to get the money in really well. The $8,430 wagered produced a return of $3,323 (a massive 39%). Obviously, this is due in large part to finding myself in many favourable situations. Here are some of the best ones:
(1) Playing heads-up, I raised from the SB with QQ and called the re-raise from the BB. We got all-in on the flop of 986 and my Queens held up against the BB’s J6 (nice re-raise!) for a $2,000 pot
(2) I raised with AJ and got 4 callers, which didn’t please me until the flop came down KQT rainbow, giving me the nuts. I managed to get a total of almost $600 into the pot whilst almost totally unbeatable. Then, on the turn, the other player with decent chips decided I was bluffing and proceeded to put his remaining $624 in whilst drawing dead. This pot alone was worth $1,078 in equity.
(3) I hit trips (the silent killer) in a raised pot against AK, with the dream flop of K92 and the dream opponent who thought that TPTK was the nuts. This was good for another $2,300 pot.
(4) I hit trips again from UTG (66 on a 643 flop) against what seemed to be an obvious big pair. He didn’t disappoint me and couldn’t wait to get all-in by the turn. This generated another $800+ in equity.
The biggest losing pot of the week I went in with AK (no pair, no draw) on a 775 flop, but in all fairness it was against a guy who had been betting and raising every hand for the last 10 minutes. The only problem was this time he had KK and I was drawing very thin. That was a loss of almost $1,200.
Reading this, it could appear to the casual observer that all you have to do to win at poker is hit the flop and then get paid off by some donkey with an inferior hand. In reality, its much more difficult than that. Its only by getting involved occasionally with the worst hand that you can get action when you have the best hand. There are many small pots that are little more than jabs, attempting to set up the opening for the huge knockout blow that wins all the chips. Also, even when you have the best possible hand, there is still a huge skill element in deciding how much to bet. This requires the ability to estimate what your opponent holds and how much value he is likely to put on that holding. Sometimes you get it wrong and win nothing (as they fold), other times you are spot on and manage to persuade them to lose all their chips.
I observed an amazing run from an opponent this week. He sat down with only $200 and after picking up AA, AQ (Q-high flop) and K7 (KK9 flop, K on the turn) he was sat in front of $2,000 after his first 3 hands at the table. It didn't last however, as he seemed intent on being involved in every hand. He lost $1,200 of it to me 2 hands later with AK against my trip 2s (see above) and another chunk a few hands later. Within another 20 minutes the rest had gone too, including his original $200: a truly incredible run!
This week’s win has seen me crash through the $20,000 barrier since this escapade began. To be honest, this wasn’t something I was expecting much before May next year, so its great to be way ahead of schedule. Obviously its possible that I can dip below $20,000 again, but hopefully it will be onwards and upwards.
Bankroll-wise, my wife has asked me "how much is enough?" I’m not sure what the answer to that it, but I feel much more comfortable making the right playing decisions when there are no bankroll considerations to factor in to the equation: these are totally unwanted distractions. I feel that $25,000 is an adequate bankroll for the level I am playing but it must be remembered that I have enjoyed lots of good luck in the last 5 months (more than my fair share, to the value of about $11,000). It wouldn’t be a great shock to me to find the bankroll stagnating or even going down. I still plan to withdraw 10% per month, so in the next few days I should be taking out about $2,900 to go towards real-life expenses. The rest will remain ‘unspendable’ until its time to withdraw again next month. Hopefully this way, I can build a solid, significant and sustainable additional income stream. It sure beats any other part-time job I could get.
Thursday, 1 November 2007
October consigned to history
Big pot 'true winnings': $5,833.66
Small pot losses: $(570.50)
Rakeback received: $127.82
True winnings (total): $5,390.98
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Hands played: 5,798
Hours played: 60:45
Win rate per hour: $88.74
Win rate per 100 hands: $92.98 (4.65ptbb)
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Bankroll at 1 Oct: $18,277.63
True win: $5,390.98
Good luck in big pots: $5,333.07
Withdrawal: $(2,159.00)
Bankroll at 31 Oct: $26,842.68
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My thoughts:
This has been a tricky month, and I am happy to get through to the end of it with a nice win. Once again, I have run very well in the big pots. I am sure this undeserved extra help to the bankroll has helped me maintain my equilibrium in the tough times. Who knows what would have happened without it.
I have done reasonably well (EV-wise) in the big pots this month, despite having been involved in so many more than the previous two months put together. I think this is a reflection of the action there has been during the month. There have been a lot of new faces and they have generally been willing to play big pots. I have loosened up a bit compared to previous months and this has meant that results have been a bit more up-and-down.
I lost money in the small pots (ie. those with showdown and pot size < $400, or those with no showdown) and this probably reflects an increase in looseness of the average opponent. Earlier in the month I was way down in this area, and had to adjust to reflect that I was unable to steal as many small and medium-sized pots as I had in previous months.
The bankroll has now reached a very healthy position, due in large part to my continued good luck in the biggest pots. I have no plans to move up in stakes, as I am sure the $10-$20 game would put great strains on a 13 buy-in bankroll. When I do eventually move up, I expect the games to be more aggressive and more frequently short-handed. Both of these factors point to higher variance. Also, if my relative win-rate is lower than at $5-$10, which it more than likely will be, this also indicates a higher expected variance per win-rate, increasing bankroll pressure.
I am happy to have maintained an hourly rate around the $100 mark for the last 3 months, and see no reason to jeopardise that by moving up to $10-$20. I aim to win $5000 per month for the time being and as the bankroll increases my monthly 10% withdrawal will continue to be significant to our household income.
Small pot losses: $(570.50)
Rakeback received: $127.82
True winnings (total): $5,390.98
----------
Hands played: 5,798
Hours played: 60:45
Win rate per hour: $88.74
Win rate per 100 hands: $92.98 (4.65ptbb)
----------
Bankroll at 1 Oct: $18,277.63
True win: $5,390.98
Good luck in big pots: $5,333.07
Withdrawal: $(2,159.00)
Bankroll at 31 Oct: $26,842.68
-----------------------------------------------------
My thoughts:
This has been a tricky month, and I am happy to get through to the end of it with a nice win. Once again, I have run very well in the big pots. I am sure this undeserved extra help to the bankroll has helped me maintain my equilibrium in the tough times. Who knows what would have happened without it.
I have done reasonably well (EV-wise) in the big pots this month, despite having been involved in so many more than the previous two months put together. I think this is a reflection of the action there has been during the month. There have been a lot of new faces and they have generally been willing to play big pots. I have loosened up a bit compared to previous months and this has meant that results have been a bit more up-and-down.
I lost money in the small pots (ie. those with showdown and pot size < $400, or those with no showdown) and this probably reflects an increase in looseness of the average opponent. Earlier in the month I was way down in this area, and had to adjust to reflect that I was unable to steal as many small and medium-sized pots as I had in previous months.
The bankroll has now reached a very healthy position, due in large part to my continued good luck in the biggest pots. I have no plans to move up in stakes, as I am sure the $10-$20 game would put great strains on a 13 buy-in bankroll. When I do eventually move up, I expect the games to be more aggressive and more frequently short-handed. Both of these factors point to higher variance. Also, if my relative win-rate is lower than at $5-$10, which it more than likely will be, this also indicates a higher expected variance per win-rate, increasing bankroll pressure.
I am happy to have maintained an hourly rate around the $100 mark for the last 3 months, and see no reason to jeopardise that by moving up to $10-$20. I aim to win $5000 per month for the time being and as the bankroll increases my monthly 10% withdrawal will continue to be significant to our household income.
Monday, 29 October 2007
Getting better all the time?
I feel as though describing another week as “disappointing” would be thrusting this blog closer to monotony. Some might say it’s already there. That said, I have found it tough going (again) but still managed to scrape out a $642 win in 17 hours of play.
Maybe it’s a sign that I’m improving steadily as a player, that I can look back on a week as tough but yet still record a reasonable win. Looking at the big pots, this week I recorded a $306 loss: not earth-shattering by any means but it looks bad in context of the previous 11-12 weeks ($10,000 profit in total). I feel as though I played well pretty much all week, so I just have to accept it as part of the ups and downs of the game.
I flopped a few sets this week but never managed to win a big pot. Here are some of the losers:
44 from the big blind, flop AJ4: I checked the flop here as I was against an auto-bettor (who checked). He then called my turn bet of $70 with K7 (turn made him a pair of Kings to go with his flopped flush draw, which I would have expected him to bet). The flush came in on the river and for some reason I decided to bet into him and then pay off his raise, which meant that I lost the maximum. A check-call of a pot-sized bet would have saved me $200.
88 in 4-way pot, flop K98 (all diamonds): I checked 3rd to go on the flop and it was checked around. The turn was an offsuit 3 and I bet $100 into the $135 pot, called by the button who had $235 behind. An offsuit 6 fell on the river and I made a defensive bet of $150, hoping to save some money against a non-nut flush. Alas, the button raised me with the nuts and I paid off the $85 extra “just in case”.
44 from the big blind, raised by an unknown short-stack, flop J74: we both checked the flop and then he got all-in for $189 on the blank turn, his JJ leaving me drawing at one out.
33 from late position against the blinds (unraised pot): I raised the big blinds flop bet on an 832 board (with 2 spades) and he called. A third spade (the 6) hit the turn and I checked behind. Then another spade hit the river and the big blind tried to trap-check with A(spades)8 but I checked behind as I had a 3 spades for the flush also.
The one time I flopped a set against a big stack, with QQ in a re-raised pot, I came out firing on the QJx flop and bet again on a blank turn, forcing the solid re-raiser to fold. I guess he either didn’t have an overpair (or didn’t fancy it was ahead, maybe).
The biggest loss of the week occurred when I called a raise from the small blind with AK, playing 3-handed. The small blind called too and the flop came down K85, with a flush draw. I checked and called the $105 flop bet. The board paired the 8 and it looked like a good card to ‘represent’. The raiser might think that I was merely representing this card, and would therefore be more likely to get his money in with a weaker K than mine. Alas, I got a sinking feeling after he quickly re-raised my check-raise all-in. He showed 55 for an almost unbeatable full house.
It wasn’t all gloom and doom, however. There were some hands I played really well, extracting maximum value, but to go into details sounds too much like bragging.
I suppose the positive to come out of this review is the fact that I have spotted so many errors I have made during the week. These errors highlight additional opportunities to profit from better play. This is something I need to keep striving for in the weeks and months to come.
If I get to the point where I can’t spot my own mistakes either the game is too tough, I’ve become too complacent or I’m playing perfect poker (the least likely of the three). In the mean time, I am happy being able to win despite some fairly silly mistakes.
Maybe it’s a sign that I’m improving steadily as a player, that I can look back on a week as tough but yet still record a reasonable win. Looking at the big pots, this week I recorded a $306 loss: not earth-shattering by any means but it looks bad in context of the previous 11-12 weeks ($10,000 profit in total). I feel as though I played well pretty much all week, so I just have to accept it as part of the ups and downs of the game.
I flopped a few sets this week but never managed to win a big pot. Here are some of the losers:
44 from the big blind, flop AJ4: I checked the flop here as I was against an auto-bettor (who checked). He then called my turn bet of $70 with K7 (turn made him a pair of Kings to go with his flopped flush draw, which I would have expected him to bet). The flush came in on the river and for some reason I decided to bet into him and then pay off his raise, which meant that I lost the maximum. A check-call of a pot-sized bet would have saved me $200.
88 in 4-way pot, flop K98 (all diamonds): I checked 3rd to go on the flop and it was checked around. The turn was an offsuit 3 and I bet $100 into the $135 pot, called by the button who had $235 behind. An offsuit 6 fell on the river and I made a defensive bet of $150, hoping to save some money against a non-nut flush. Alas, the button raised me with the nuts and I paid off the $85 extra “just in case”.
44 from the big blind, raised by an unknown short-stack, flop J74: we both checked the flop and then he got all-in for $189 on the blank turn, his JJ leaving me drawing at one out.
33 from late position against the blinds (unraised pot): I raised the big blinds flop bet on an 832 board (with 2 spades) and he called. A third spade (the 6) hit the turn and I checked behind. Then another spade hit the river and the big blind tried to trap-check with A(spades)8 but I checked behind as I had a 3 spades for the flush also.
The one time I flopped a set against a big stack, with QQ in a re-raised pot, I came out firing on the QJx flop and bet again on a blank turn, forcing the solid re-raiser to fold. I guess he either didn’t have an overpair (or didn’t fancy it was ahead, maybe).
The biggest loss of the week occurred when I called a raise from the small blind with AK, playing 3-handed. The small blind called too and the flop came down K85, with a flush draw. I checked and called the $105 flop bet. The board paired the 8 and it looked like a good card to ‘represent’. The raiser might think that I was merely representing this card, and would therefore be more likely to get his money in with a weaker K than mine. Alas, I got a sinking feeling after he quickly re-raised my check-raise all-in. He showed 55 for an almost unbeatable full house.
It wasn’t all gloom and doom, however. There were some hands I played really well, extracting maximum value, but to go into details sounds too much like bragging.
I suppose the positive to come out of this review is the fact that I have spotted so many errors I have made during the week. These errors highlight additional opportunities to profit from better play. This is something I need to keep striving for in the weeks and months to come.
If I get to the point where I can’t spot my own mistakes either the game is too tough, I’ve become too complacent or I’m playing perfect poker (the least likely of the three). In the mean time, I am happy being able to win despite some fairly silly mistakes.
Monday, 22 October 2007
Action, mistakes and loose play
This week has seen a tremendous amount of action at the tables. I've played about 1500 hands in about 15 hours and won just over $2500. This hasn't happened, though, without putting a lot of money into play. I'm thankful to the poker gods for providing me with enough bankroll padding to be able to play at these stakes without feeling outside my comfort zone.
It hasn't all been plain-sailing though and I had a bad hour or so on Wednesday evening where I was in danger of getting seriously annoyed with myself.
Monday brought a nice win ($1100), with a couple of hiccups along the way, but Tuesday I only broke even despite a couple of risky plays that paid off.
On Wednesday I made a couple of moves that under the right circumstances were OK, but with the table image that I had cultivated (very loose aggressive) were nothing more than chip-spewing. I lost a lot of money in $100s and $200s trying to buy pots with nothing and I picked the wrong time to take a stand when playing heads-up against somebody who I have now re-assessed as "tough" from my original classification of "borderline maniac".
I was down over $2000 for the day at one point, but changed tables and immediately flopped the nut straight in a raised pot (big blind v small blind) with QJ. The raiser had TP+SD and we got all-in on the turn, my hand holding up despite the board pairing on the turn.
Next I re-raise squeezed from the BB with AQs and pushed all-in when re-re-raised. It turns out the 4-bettor had QQ but I considered that unless he had AA I had at least 30% equity and decided to go for it, as there was the possibility he was re-squeezing.
After winning this hand it was obvious that I was viewed as the table donkey, although there was another guy who was in more pots than me and was quite passive. He called a big bet of mine with A4 on a board of 5677(rainbow) and when I checked behind on the river with KJ he won a decent pot. This can't have made me look good either, so I decided I had better make the most of this loose image. I tightened up and only raised in super-solid situations for the next 20 minutes or so: just enough to look as if I hadn't gone into my shell with my big stack.
I had lost a few smallish pots to the guy on my right who now had around $2k after pushing me around a bit when I found the perfect spot to push him back. He raised from the SB and I re-raised him to $120 with QQ. The flop came Q53 and he checked and called my follow-up bet of $190. The 4 on the turn appeared to change nothing and he checked and called again - this time a bet of $370. When the river came an Ace, I wondered if he could have anything good enough to call another big bet. I decided he might just look me up with a relatively weak hand, when considering my previous play, so decided to bet enough to put him all-in. He happily called his last $1200 with AQ (top two-pairs) and I raked in the biggest pot in the history of this blog ($3900).
After a disastrous start to the day, I was relieved to get back to a manageable loss (about $400).
The rest of the week was less eventful, in comparison and I finished it very well despite the occasional hiccup. I was much more controlled in my decision-making and managed to find some very favourable situations where I got somewhere near maximum value for my hand.
The action has been good lately as long as you are prepared to look for good tables, avoiding the tight regulars. One of the advantages of playing one table at a time is that I have time to assess how things are going and can look for a better table if necessary. There still seems to be enough loose money making its way to $5-$10 to keep the multi-tabling regulars in business but I'm happy that my method suits my game.
Maybe I could win more per hour playing a tighter game on 3-4 tables. The win-rate would almost certainly drop dramatically and with the reduced win-rate comes increased variance, putting more pressure on the bankroll. I'm happy playing 1 table: it feels more like a game than a job and the enjoyment factor has definitely got to be a major consideration in determining any future plans in this game.
Managing the swings is one of the keys to success, and I'm comfortable with the bankroll now standing at around $24,000. Having said that, I know I have been lucky in this escapade so far. I hope that continues but I am realistic enough to know that I need to hope I still keep playing winning poker when my luck changes for the worse.
It hasn't all been plain-sailing though and I had a bad hour or so on Wednesday evening where I was in danger of getting seriously annoyed with myself.
Monday brought a nice win ($1100), with a couple of hiccups along the way, but Tuesday I only broke even despite a couple of risky plays that paid off.
On Wednesday I made a couple of moves that under the right circumstances were OK, but with the table image that I had cultivated (very loose aggressive) were nothing more than chip-spewing. I lost a lot of money in $100s and $200s trying to buy pots with nothing and I picked the wrong time to take a stand when playing heads-up against somebody who I have now re-assessed as "tough" from my original classification of "borderline maniac".
I was down over $2000 for the day at one point, but changed tables and immediately flopped the nut straight in a raised pot (big blind v small blind) with QJ. The raiser had TP+SD and we got all-in on the turn, my hand holding up despite the board pairing on the turn.
Next I re-raise squeezed from the BB with AQs and pushed all-in when re-re-raised. It turns out the 4-bettor had QQ but I considered that unless he had AA I had at least 30% equity and decided to go for it, as there was the possibility he was re-squeezing.
After winning this hand it was obvious that I was viewed as the table donkey, although there was another guy who was in more pots than me and was quite passive. He called a big bet of mine with A4 on a board of 5677(rainbow) and when I checked behind on the river with KJ he won a decent pot. This can't have made me look good either, so I decided I had better make the most of this loose image. I tightened up and only raised in super-solid situations for the next 20 minutes or so: just enough to look as if I hadn't gone into my shell with my big stack.
I had lost a few smallish pots to the guy on my right who now had around $2k after pushing me around a bit when I found the perfect spot to push him back. He raised from the SB and I re-raised him to $120 with QQ. The flop came Q53 and he checked and called my follow-up bet of $190. The 4 on the turn appeared to change nothing and he checked and called again - this time a bet of $370. When the river came an Ace, I wondered if he could have anything good enough to call another big bet. I decided he might just look me up with a relatively weak hand, when considering my previous play, so decided to bet enough to put him all-in. He happily called his last $1200 with AQ (top two-pairs) and I raked in the biggest pot in the history of this blog ($3900).
After a disastrous start to the day, I was relieved to get back to a manageable loss (about $400).
The rest of the week was less eventful, in comparison and I finished it very well despite the occasional hiccup. I was much more controlled in my decision-making and managed to find some very favourable situations where I got somewhere near maximum value for my hand.
The action has been good lately as long as you are prepared to look for good tables, avoiding the tight regulars. One of the advantages of playing one table at a time is that I have time to assess how things are going and can look for a better table if necessary. There still seems to be enough loose money making its way to $5-$10 to keep the multi-tabling regulars in business but I'm happy that my method suits my game.
Maybe I could win more per hour playing a tighter game on 3-4 tables. The win-rate would almost certainly drop dramatically and with the reduced win-rate comes increased variance, putting more pressure on the bankroll. I'm happy playing 1 table: it feels more like a game than a job and the enjoyment factor has definitely got to be a major consideration in determining any future plans in this game.
Managing the swings is one of the keys to success, and I'm comfortable with the bankroll now standing at around $24,000. Having said that, I know I have been lucky in this escapade so far. I hope that continues but I am realistic enough to know that I need to hope I still keep playing winning poker when my luck changes for the worse.
Monday, 15 October 2007
Playing against 'hot' players
This week the theme of loose and aggressive play has continued at the $5-$10 full-ring tables. I can think of at least 3 times when the worst player in the game has had the biggest stack of chips. This is a situation that gets me drooling, and I generally go out of my way to get involved with them. Things didnt go according to plan, however, and the results for the week were no better than 'decent': a $599 win in just under 11.5hrs play.
All three of these players played too many hands, around 60% when not in the blinds, but whereas the first two where at least sometimes aggressive, the third just called even when he was really strong. He won a small fortune but really should have won even more.
These players weren't hot. They just appeared hot, as they played so many hands that they were showing down unlikely winners more often than is usual. Obviously the main reason for this was that they were playing many more hands than is optimal, and so there were also many losing hands that we never got to see.
Numpty #1
This guy was sat down with just over $3000 when I joined the table. He ended up losing $1143 in the hour that I played with him, despite winning $427 from me. He never got much higher than $3k and it was instantly obvious that the sharks were circling him.
He lost $560 drawing to a pair+straight-flush-draw when he hit trips on the river against a full-house. Then he got stubborn with A7 and lost another $460 v AQ on a A95,3,A board.
The only decent pot he won was with A2 when he flopped AT2 and made small bets to the river and was called down by 77, with your truly coming along for the value with K6 (the NFD).
Generally he played too many pots and lost 10 pots after putting in between $70-$200.
Numpty #2
Later the same day; this guy was even worse. When I sat down he had about $1100 but he soon whittled that down to $500 or so before going on a big run up to about $2600. I got involved with him a few times but managed to not lose much to him, until I then won a big one, doubling through my $1300 against his then $1600.
I raised to $50 with KK, which is more than I usually raise but he was routinely calling $50 before the flop so it made sense to get as much in before the flop with the best hand. He called from the SB with J9 and we saw the J99 flop heads-up. He checked and I bet $90, which he just called. The turn was a Q and despite the possibility that he had a 9, I decided to bet again, $190, as QJ was definitely in his range of possible holdings. When he called again I was starting to get a bit worried that he had a 9 after all. The river was a King, and he delighted me by leading out with a bet of $330, which I raised a further $660 all-in. Obviously he called and a big pot came my way.
When I left the table about 20 minutes later he had managed to get back up to about $700.
Numpty #3
This fella did run pretty hot and was very lucky cards-wise, but he didn't maximise his good luck. I just reviewed this guys session and he was actually loose because he got hit by the deck. Every marginal hand he had held up. Every draw he had hit.
Of his $2200 win, over $1800 of it came from yours truly. I lost 15 pots to him. Here are some of the details, starting with the biggest:
(1) He raises to $35 from EP with 65(hearts) and I call from the BB after the button calls. The flop is 972(with 2 hearts) and he bets out $50, called by the button and I call too. The turn is an offsuit 9 and he bets out again for $100, the button folds and I raise to $290, which he calls. I know I have him beat at this point, but because he generally calls when anyone takes the lead its tough to know what he has. The river is the 4 of hearts and I bet a partly-defensive $370 into the $840 pot, which he just calls.
(2) I raise to $30 with KQ and there are 3 callers including our nemesis. I bet only $60 on the flop and that succeeds on getting it heads-up. The turn bring a 10 and he calls my $150 bet, before calling my $220 bet on the blank river with trip 10s. He scoops the pot and comments "Ever heard of checking son?"
(3) I re-raise a button steal to $110 with J9-suited. He calls cold from the BB and the button folds. I check the K-high flop but bet $220 on the turn which he calls with JJ. I give up on the river and he checks behind.
(4) I raise to $30 with T9 and get 2 callers, including the nemesis on the SB with 73(hearts). The flop come QJ8 with two hearts and he calls my $50 bet. The flush gets there on the turn and he min-check-raises my $50 bet, which I call. I have the 10 of hearts. He then bets out $100 on the river and I call again.
(5) I limp on the button with 96(spades) and we see a Kd8s5s flop 4-handed. All check to me and I attempt to steal for $30. Nemesis makes it $60 and I call. I could raise here but I really dont see him folding anything at all. He then bets $100 into the $160 pot and again I consider raising but just call (same reasoning), before folding to his river value bet ($100 - K5 for the flopped 2-pairs).
Looking back I dont think I did too much wrong. It just happens that way sometimes. Value-bets look good when they are called by lesser hands but you can look a bit foolish when your opponent has you beat all along.
There is so much scope for error in this game. I have made lots of errors this week and still come out ahead. This week's win is really insignificant, though, when compared with the amount of money I have put across the line. A better player than me could have won $3-4,000 with the cards I've had, I guess. My quest should be to try to maximise every time. I feel as though I've left a lot of money on the tables this week.
I need to take a bit of a stop back this week, take my time a bit more and think through the possiblities a bit longer. I have maybe drifted into auto-pilot a little and that is dangerous. I must try to re-focus and see if I can get my win-rate back up to that of August and September.
All three of these players played too many hands, around 60% when not in the blinds, but whereas the first two where at least sometimes aggressive, the third just called even when he was really strong. He won a small fortune but really should have won even more.
These players weren't hot. They just appeared hot, as they played so many hands that they were showing down unlikely winners more often than is usual. Obviously the main reason for this was that they were playing many more hands than is optimal, and so there were also many losing hands that we never got to see.
Numpty #1
This guy was sat down with just over $3000 when I joined the table. He ended up losing $1143 in the hour that I played with him, despite winning $427 from me. He never got much higher than $3k and it was instantly obvious that the sharks were circling him.
He lost $560 drawing to a pair+straight-flush-draw when he hit trips on the river against a full-house. Then he got stubborn with A7 and lost another $460 v AQ on a A95,3,A board.
The only decent pot he won was with A2 when he flopped AT2 and made small bets to the river and was called down by 77, with your truly coming along for the value with K6 (the NFD).
Generally he played too many pots and lost 10 pots after putting in between $70-$200.
Numpty #2
Later the same day; this guy was even worse. When I sat down he had about $1100 but he soon whittled that down to $500 or so before going on a big run up to about $2600. I got involved with him a few times but managed to not lose much to him, until I then won a big one, doubling through my $1300 against his then $1600.
I raised to $50 with KK, which is more than I usually raise but he was routinely calling $50 before the flop so it made sense to get as much in before the flop with the best hand. He called from the SB with J9 and we saw the J99 flop heads-up. He checked and I bet $90, which he just called. The turn was a Q and despite the possibility that he had a 9, I decided to bet again, $190, as QJ was definitely in his range of possible holdings. When he called again I was starting to get a bit worried that he had a 9 after all. The river was a King, and he delighted me by leading out with a bet of $330, which I raised a further $660 all-in. Obviously he called and a big pot came my way.
When I left the table about 20 minutes later he had managed to get back up to about $700.
Numpty #3
This fella did run pretty hot and was very lucky cards-wise, but he didn't maximise his good luck. I just reviewed this guys session and he was actually loose because he got hit by the deck. Every marginal hand he had held up. Every draw he had hit.
Of his $2200 win, over $1800 of it came from yours truly. I lost 15 pots to him. Here are some of the details, starting with the biggest:
(1) He raises to $35 from EP with 65(hearts) and I call from the BB after the button calls. The flop is 972(with 2 hearts) and he bets out $50, called by the button and I call too. The turn is an offsuit 9 and he bets out again for $100, the button folds and I raise to $290, which he calls. I know I have him beat at this point, but because he generally calls when anyone takes the lead its tough to know what he has. The river is the 4 of hearts and I bet a partly-defensive $370 into the $840 pot, which he just calls.
(2) I raise to $30 with KQ and there are 3 callers including our nemesis. I bet only $60 on the flop and that succeeds on getting it heads-up. The turn bring a 10 and he calls my $150 bet, before calling my $220 bet on the blank river with trip 10s. He scoops the pot and comments "Ever heard of checking son?"
(3) I re-raise a button steal to $110 with J9-suited. He calls cold from the BB and the button folds. I check the K-high flop but bet $220 on the turn which he calls with JJ. I give up on the river and he checks behind.
(4) I raise to $30 with T9 and get 2 callers, including the nemesis on the SB with 73(hearts). The flop come QJ8 with two hearts and he calls my $50 bet. The flush gets there on the turn and he min-check-raises my $50 bet, which I call. I have the 10 of hearts. He then bets out $100 on the river and I call again.
(5) I limp on the button with 96(spades) and we see a Kd8s5s flop 4-handed. All check to me and I attempt to steal for $30. Nemesis makes it $60 and I call. I could raise here but I really dont see him folding anything at all. He then bets $100 into the $160 pot and again I consider raising but just call (same reasoning), before folding to his river value bet ($100 - K5 for the flopped 2-pairs).
Looking back I dont think I did too much wrong. It just happens that way sometimes. Value-bets look good when they are called by lesser hands but you can look a bit foolish when your opponent has you beat all along.
There is so much scope for error in this game. I have made lots of errors this week and still come out ahead. This week's win is really insignificant, though, when compared with the amount of money I have put across the line. A better player than me could have won $3-4,000 with the cards I've had, I guess. My quest should be to try to maximise every time. I feel as though I've left a lot of money on the tables this week.
I need to take a bit of a stop back this week, take my time a bit more and think through the possiblities a bit longer. I have maybe drifted into auto-pilot a little and that is dangerous. I must try to re-focus and see if I can get my win-rate back up to that of August and September.
Thursday, 11 October 2007
Tight is right
Ive just finished another disappointing session. Only an hour long but managed to get involved un-necessarily with a total donk. I managed to win one pot from him, but lost several others. I suspect that he had me beat in the one that I won too.
Just lately there have been some spectacularly bad players popping up. They have been of the fairly aggressive type, in that they have been raising pre-flop and leading the post-flop betting, although their bet amounts have typically been smaller than 'standard.' I have tried to target these players and have managed to lose money in dribs and drabs, which is actually very frustrating.
I need to back off a little. The end result of this getting involved is probably only very slightly +EV and the impact on variance is certainly very high. This sounds like a bankroll-breaker if ever I have seen. Also, it makes it more likely that I will veer into tilt: something I have managed to largely avoid for a very long time now.
From my next session I am going to get back to a tight and aggressive game: vert tight in early positions, a bit looser round the back and play a solid game post-flop. If I make any 'moves' I need to make them against the tight regulars, not the crazies.
I just need to hope that when I do hit a monster it is against one of these nutcases. Chances are it will be, as they play more pots than everybody else. What I need to avoid is leaking away $100 here, $180 there trying to push these monkeys around. All of this comes off the bottom line.
I can use the time after I have folded to improve my reading of the other players. This is something that is always beneficial in the long run.
Now then, how about repeating after me :
TIGHT IS RIGHT
TIGHT IS RIGHT
TIGHT IS RIGHT
TIGHT IS RIGHT
TIGHT IS RIGHT
Just lately there have been some spectacularly bad players popping up. They have been of the fairly aggressive type, in that they have been raising pre-flop and leading the post-flop betting, although their bet amounts have typically been smaller than 'standard.' I have tried to target these players and have managed to lose money in dribs and drabs, which is actually very frustrating.
I need to back off a little. The end result of this getting involved is probably only very slightly +EV and the impact on variance is certainly very high. This sounds like a bankroll-breaker if ever I have seen. Also, it makes it more likely that I will veer into tilt: something I have managed to largely avoid for a very long time now.
From my next session I am going to get back to a tight and aggressive game: vert tight in early positions, a bit looser round the back and play a solid game post-flop. If I make any 'moves' I need to make them against the tight regulars, not the crazies.
I just need to hope that when I do hit a monster it is against one of these nutcases. Chances are it will be, as they play more pots than everybody else. What I need to avoid is leaking away $100 here, $180 there trying to push these monkeys around. All of this comes off the bottom line.
I can use the time after I have folded to improve my reading of the other players. This is something that is always beneficial in the long run.
Now then, how about repeating after me :
TIGHT IS RIGHT
TIGHT IS RIGHT
TIGHT IS RIGHT
TIGHT IS RIGHT
TIGHT IS RIGHT
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